Stocks / MRNA
Moderna, Inc.'s 10-K, read.
Bob rates Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) 32/100, lean bearish, on the 10-K filed February 20, 2026, updated through the 10-Q filed July 31, 2026.
Moderna is a commercial-stage mRNA vaccine company with three approved products (Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, mRESVIA) and one recently approved combination vaccine (mCOMBRIAX), but faces a steep profitability cliff as COVID revenue collapses from $1.9B in 2025 to $446M in H1 2026 while R&D and manufacturing costs remain elevated, necessitating success across rare disease, oncology, and new infectious disease launches to justify valuation.
- COVID vaccine revenue cratering: H1 2026 COVID sales of $436M annualize to ~$870M, down 55% from 2025's $1.9B total revenue; company reported $2.1B net loss in H1 2026 with operating cash burn of $1.2B
- High cash burn and limited path to profitability: Spent $1.2B operating cash in H1 2026; raised $3B in convertible debt in September 2026 (0% coupon, due 2032) signaling need for runway; company anticipates cost reductions but timing uncertain
- Manufacturing overcapacity: Built global manufacturing network (UK, Canada, Australia, Marlborough) for mRNA production but product demand insufficient; H1 2026 inventory write-downs of $79M and $114M COVID vaccine inventory write-downs (fiscal 2024-2025) indicate excess supply
- Pipeline execution risk: Intismeran autogene (with Merck) still in Phase 2/3 after five years of collaboration; mRNA-1010 flu vaccine missed efficacy threshold in 2023, now pursuing narrower 50-64 age population with reduced indication; mRNA-1083 flu/COVID combination withdrawn from certain geographies
- RSV and combination vaccine commercial uncertainty: mRESVIA sales only $3M-$10M per quarter; mCOMBRIAX approved in Europe April 2026 but no commercialization as of June 30, 2026; limited clinical experience vs. competitive RSV vaccines (GSK, Pfizer)
Not investment advice — general research, the same for every reader. You make your own calls.
Want the full read?
Run MRNA in Bob for the live meter, or go deep with five years of filings behind it.
Read MRNA in Bob →Last read October 22, 2026. Bob's Research is a financial publisher, not an investment adviser. Everything here is general research and education — not personalized advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Ratings are the same for every reader. You make your own calls.